Find your target. Plan the years before and after retirement. Test what happens when life or markets change.
Follow the same plan from today's savings to your last planned withdrawal.
Saving up to your chosen retirement age uses your fixed-return assumption. These two tests then challenge the retirement years with the same income, expenses and fees.
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US market and inflation history. Selecting another currency changes the display, not the underlying market. Annual asset returns are smoothed over twelve months; actual monthly market timing is not reproduced.
| Historical period | Spending result | Ending portfolio | Months with spending cuts |
|---|
Independent normal monthly returns do not reproduce every crash, changing market regime or inflation shock. A fixed sample makes changes comparable. This is an illustrative model, not a forecast.
Each row changes one part of your current plan. These are fixed-return comparisons, with your retirement age held constant.
| Change | At retirement | At plan end | Result |
|---|
| Age at period end | Phase | Saving | Other income | Planned spending | Portfolio withdrawals | Growth after fees | Portfolio | Unfunded |
|---|
Your starting target is annual spending divided by an initial withdrawal rate. Spending 3,000 a month means 36,000 a year. At 4%, the simple target is 900,000; at 3.5%, it is about 1,028,571.
The target does not know whether you receive a pension later. The complete timeline above adds that income at the age you enter, so you can see the years your portfolio must bridge on its own.
Enter expected returns before inflation. At 7% return, 2.5% inflation and a 0.2% annual fee, the effective real return is (1.07 × 0.998 ÷ 1.025) − 1, about 4.18%.
Contributions, income and spending are entered in today's purchasing power. Saving 1,500 a month therefore assumes the cash amount rises with inflation. Savings growth is an additional increase above inflation.
Taxes, benefit eligibility, debt interest, currency returns and individual insurance needs are not automatically calculated. The US historical series is not a global portfolio. A finite end age is a planning assumption, not an estimate of your lifespan.
Return models disagree because they make different assumptions. Neither a funded fixed-return plan nor a high simulated frequency establishes that retiring is suitable for you.
Norwegian ASK withdrawal estimate · US brokerage withdrawal estimate
Possibly within the model. Enter the net monthly pension and the age it starts, then test an earlier retirement age. The portfolio must fund the years before pension begins. Use the age search to find the first month that funds the stated expenses at a fixed return, then inspect the stress tests.
The simple target divides current retirement spending by a withdrawal rate. The full plan follows cash flows to a chosen end age, including pension, fees and life events. They answer different questions. A smaller target made possible by a later pension still requires a bridge portfolio.
It is a starting assumption. Longer horizons, asset mix, costs and flexible spending can change the outcome. Compare several rates and inspect the exact years and model behind any historical result. See reproducible comparisons.
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Published by FourPercent · Model 2.0.0 · Method updated 27 September 2026 · Formulas, data and verification · Corrections and contact