Find your target. Plan the years before and after retirement. Test what happens when life or markets change.
Follow the same plan from today's savings to your last planned withdrawal.
Saving up to your chosen retirement age uses your fixed-return assumption. These two tests then challenge the retirement years with the same income, expenses and fees.
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US market and inflation history. Selecting another currency changes the display, not the underlying market. Annual asset returns are smoothed over twelve months; actual monthly market timing is not reproduced.
| Historical period | Spending result | Ending portfolio | Months with spending cuts |
|---|
Independent normal monthly returns do not reproduce every crash, changing market regime or inflation shock. A fixed sample makes changes comparable. This is an illustrative model, not a forecast.
Each row changes one part of your current plan. These are fixed-return comparisons, with your retirement age held constant.
| Change | At retirement | At plan end | Result |
|---|
| Age at period end | Phase | Saving | Other income | Planned spending | Portfolio withdrawals | Growth after fees | Portfolio | Unfunded |
|---|
Your starting target is annual spending divided by an initial withdrawal rate. Spending 3,000 a month means 36,000 a year. At 4%, the simple target is 900,000; at 3.5%, it is about 1,028,571.
The target does not know whether you receive a pension later. The complete timeline above adds that income at the age you enter, so you can see the years your portfolio must bridge on its own.
Enter expected returns before inflation. At 7% return, 2.5% inflation and a 0.2% annual fee, the effective real return is (1.07 × 0.998 ÷ 1.025) − 1, about 4.18%.
Contributions, income and spending are entered in today's purchasing power. Saving 1,500 a month therefore assumes the cash amount rises with inflation. Savings growth is an additional increase above inflation.
Taxes, benefit eligibility, debt interest, currency returns and individual insurance needs are not automatically calculated. The US historical series is not a global portfolio. A finite end age is a planning assumption, not an estimate of your lifespan.
Return models disagree because they make different assumptions. Neither a funded fixed-return plan nor a high simulated frequency establishes that retiring is suitable for you.
Norwegian ASK withdrawal estimate · US brokerage withdrawal estimate
The age and years-to-FIRE results now use the same monthly model. These fictional cases compare a spending target with continued saving; reaching it does not prove that a retirement plan is funded.
Every row uses 4% initial withdrawals, 2% yearly savings growth, 0% inflation and 0% fees. Here the entered return is therefore also the real return. Saving is deposited at month end and increases after each complete year. Use any single currency for all amounts.
| Scenario | Current age | Invested | Monthly saving | Monthly spending | Target | Time remaining | Target age | Try it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countdown at 6% | 35 | 600,000 | 10,000 | 35,000 | 10,500,000 | 24y 9m | 59y 9m | |
| Countdown at 4.5% | 35 | 600,000 | 10,000 | 35,000 | 10,500,000 | 28y 4m | 63y 4m | |
| Age comparison at 5% | 30 | 250,000 | 6,000 | 30,000 | 9,000,000 | 33y 4m | 63y 4m | |
| Age comparison at 4% | 30 | 250,000 | 6,000 | 30,000 | 9,000,000 | 36y 10m | 66y 10m |
The first plan takes 24y 9m at 6% and 28y 4m at 4.5%. The second reaches its target at age 63y 4m at 5%, or 66y 10m at 4%. The difference measures sensitivity to the return assumption.
Loading an example replaces the current inputs in this browser. Save your scenario first if you want to keep it. The full-plan example retires at 70, ends at 95, has no pension or life events, and uses the default 80% stocks / 20% Treasuries and 15% simulated volatility. Those settings affect retirement tests, not the simple target calculation above.
Download every input and result (JSON) · Method and review history. Reviewed 5 October 2026. Run node scripts/build_planning_examples.cjs --check from the source repository to reproduce this table.
Possibly within the model. Enter the net monthly pension and the age it starts, then test an earlier retirement age. The portfolio must fund the years before pension begins. Use the age search to find the first month that funds the stated expenses at a fixed return, then inspect the stress tests.
The simple target divides current retirement spending by a withdrawal rate. The full plan follows cash flows to a chosen end age, including pension, fees and life events. They answer different questions. A smaller target made possible by a later pension still requires a bridge portfolio.
It is a starting assumption. Longer horizons, asset mix, costs and flexible spending can change the outcome. Compare several rates and inspect the exact years and model behind any historical result. See reproducible comparisons.
The calculation and scenario storage run on your device. We do not upload the amounts. You can choose to export or share them. Optional analytics and advertising have separate privacy choices; they are not needed to calculate. Read the privacy details.
Published by Stian / stianlab · Model 2.0.0 · Examples reviewed 5 October 2026 · Formulas, data and verification · Corrections and contact